Time Series Analysis Applied to the Modeling of Inflows of Angostura Reservoir
Keywords:
Time series analysis, Angostura reservoir, synthetic streamflow series generation.Abstract
The main purpose of this work is to model the inflow per basin of the Angostura reservoir, using the time series approach and the SARIMA and PAR(p) models. The performance of each model is evaluated considering a one-month ahead forecast and the estimation of the mean and standard deviation, obtained from the generation of synthetic scenarios. According to the error metrics considered, the SARIMA model has greater functionality for one-month ahead forecasting, while the PAR(p) model is more suitable for modeling the monthly mean and standard deviation. The use of these type of models allows the National Electric System operator to manage more economically the energy stored in Angostura, since the decisions involved are more robust to the set of scenarios that may arise.
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