Counterfactual Simulation of the Impact of Universal Health and Social Security Coverage on Poverty in Quintana Roo, Mexico

Abstract

This article assesses the potential impact of guaranteeing universal access to social security and health services on multidimensional poverty in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Using the decomposition methodology developed by Datt and Ravallion, counterfactual scenarios are constructed based on microdata from the 2022 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey. The analysis shows that eliminating deprivation in access to social security would have a more significant effect than universal health coverage in reducing poverty, particularly extreme poverty. The findings suggest that expanding access to these social rights is an effective strategy to mitigate structural poverty in contexts of high labor informality. The study provides empirical evidence to inform public policies focused on equitable access to social protection.